The Kogan (ASX: KGN) share price is down more than 10% in early trading after reporting a mixed set of numbers for the third quarter of FY21.
Why the Kogan share price could come under pressure
Kogan reported that its sales continue to grow at a fast pace, but it’s now suffering from some COVID-19 impacts.
The e-commerce business said that in the third quarter of FY21, combined (Kogan and Mighty Ape) gross sales grew by more than 47% and revenue went up over 65%. Gross profit increased by 54%. However, adjusted EBITDA (EBITDA explained) declined by more than 24%.
Kogan total active customers increased by 77% to 3.2 million, whilst active customers had grown to 742,000 at Mighty Ape at 31 March 2021.
Performance was lower when just looking at the Kogan business (excluding Mighty Ape). Gross sales went up 32% and revenue rose 41%. Within that, exclusive brand revenue went up 63%, third party brands revenue went up 13% and marketplace revenue grew by over 100%. Gross profit grew over 33% and adjusted EBITDA fell 42%.
What happened to Kogan’s EBITDA?
The business said that there were a few different factors.
It has continued its long term strategy of investing in technology, brand awareness, logistics, platform improvements and Kogan First membership benefits. This will help future growth and improve the customer experience.
However, Kogan had ordered a lot of inventory in response to the demand seen throughout the first half of FY21. But in the three months to March 2021, customer demand fell to below the levels seen in the prior nine months to December 2020.
That meant it was storing more inventory than expected, incurring higher storage expenses and demurrage fees. That’s a charge payable to shipping because of a failure to load or discharge the ship within the time agreed. The demurrage problem is expected to be resolved from May 2021. The demurrage charges amount to $3.9 million.
Kogan has been trying to solve the inventory issue by increasing its promotional activity. That means more discounting, leading to lower margins. Not good for profitability.
At the same time, Kogan has seen price inflation of many products that are being planned for reorder for the Christmas trading period. There has also been an inflation of international shipping costs.
Thoughts on Kogan and the share price
Kogan is still confident about the future with active customers continuing to rise. It was good to see that Kogan’s sales keep growing at a good double digit rate. Kogan marketplace continues to be a standout.
It can be worrying when multiple factors combine at the same time. It’s hard to say how concerning the decline in EBITDA is until we see the breakdown between the ‘one-off’ inventory issues and the investing for future growth. The FY21 result will be interesting.
I’ll be very interested to see whether the demand decline only affects Kogan, online retailers or it is a widespread decline of retail spending.
I still believe that the Kogan share price is a long term opportunity because of the benefits of being an online platform. However, the inventory and demurrage issues are disappointing.
