Search by ticker code:
Generic filters

Search by ticker code:
Generic filters

Search by ticker code:
Generic filters

With the CBA share price nearing $100: use these ways to research it

Right now, you could probably use Google or another data provider to see the price of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) is around $100 per share. But what are CBA shares really worth?

Getting to an valuation is one of the more popular questions or topics our senior investment analysts get asked by Australian investors, especially those seeking dividend income. It’s not exclusive to Commonwealth Bank of Australia, of course.

ANZ Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) and Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) are also very popular stocks on the ASX.

Before we walk through two valuation models you might use to answer the question yourself, let’s consider why investors like bank shares in the first place.

Alongside the tech and industrial sectors, the financials/banking industry is a favourite for Australian investors. The largest banks, including Commonwealth Bank of Australia and National Australia Bank operate in an ‘oligopoly’.

And while large international banks, such as HSBC, have tried to encroach on our ‘Big Four’, the success of foreign competitors has been very limited. In Australia, ASX bank shares are particularly favoured by dividend investors looking for franking credits.

Price-earnings (PER) analysis

The ‘PE’ ratio compares a company’s share price (P) to its most recent full-year earnings per share (E). Remember, ‘earnings’ is just another word for profit. That means, the PE ratio is simply comparing share price to the most recent yearly profit of the company. Some experts will try to tell you that ‘the lower PE ratio is better’ because it means the share price is ‘low’ relative to the profits produced by the company. However, sometimes shares are cheap for a reason!

Secondly, some extremely successful companies have gone for many years (a decade or more) and never reported an accounting profit — so the PE ratio wouldn’t have worked.

Therefore, we think it’s essential to dig deeper than just looking at the PE ratio and thinking to yourself ‘if it’s below 10x, I’ll buy it.’

One of the simple ratio models analysts use to value a bank share is to compare the PE ratio of the bank/share you’re looking at with its peer group or competitors and try to determine if the share is too much or in the money relative to the average. From there, and using the principle of mean reversion, we can multiply the profits/earnings per share by the sector average (E x sector PE) to reflect what an average company would be worth. It’s like saying, ‘if all of the other stocks are priced at ‘X’, this one should be too’.

If we take the CBA share price today ($100.06), together with the earnings (aka profits) per share data from its 2023 financial year ($5.89), we can calculate the company’s PE ratio to be 17x. That compares to the banking sector average PE of 13x.

Next, take the profits per share (EPS) ($5.89) and multiply it by the average PE ratio for CBA’s sector (Banking). This results in a ‘sector-adjusted’ PE valuation of $74.15.

A more reliable way to value the CBA share price

Given that ASX bank shares like CBA tend to have a history of paying dividends — and they are relatively stable businesses like REITs or ETFs — we can use a modelling tool called a dividend discount model or DDM to do a valuation.

A DDM uses the dividends shareholders are ‘expected’ to receive to arrive at a valuation.

To make this DDM easy to understand, we will assume last year’s dividend payment ($4.50) grows at a fixed rate each year.

Next, we pick the ‘risk’ rate or expected return rate. This is the rate at which we discount the future dividend payments back to today’s dollars. The higher the ‘risk’ rate, the lower the share price valuation.

We’ve used a blended rate for dividend growth and a risk rate between 6% and 11%, then got the average.

This simple DDM valuation of CBA shares is $85.78. However, using an ‘adjusted’ dividend payment of $4.37 per share, the valuation goes to $78.33. The expected dividend valuation compares to Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s share price of $100.06. Since the company’s dividends are fully franked, you might choose to make one further adjustment and do the valuation based on a ‘gross’ dividend payment. That is, the cash dividends plus the franking credits (available to eligible shareholders). Using the forecast gross dividend payment ($6.24), our valuation of the CBA share price prediction to $111.91.

Is this CBA valuation reasonable?

Please be mindful that these valuation methods are just the starting point of the research and valuation process. Please remember that. Banks are very complex companies and if the GFC of 2008/2009 taught investors anything, it’s that even the ‘best’ banks can go out of business and take shareholders down with them.

If you are looking at Commonwealth Bank of Australia shares and considering an investment, take your time to learn more about the bank’s growth strategy. For example, is it pursuing more lending (i.e. interest income) or more non-interest income (fees from financial advice, investment management, etc.)? Then, take a close look at economic indicators such as unemployment, house prices and consumer sentiment. Finally, it’s always essential to make an assessment of the management team.

$50,000 per year in passive income from shares? Yes, please!

With interest rates UP, now could be one of the best times to start earning passive income from a portfolio. Imagine earning 4%, 5% — or more — in dividend passive income from the best shares, LICs, or ETFs… it’s like magic.

So how do the best investors do it?

Chief Investment Officer Owen Rask has just released his brand new passive income report. Owen has outlined 10 of his favourite ETFs and shares to watch, his rules for passive income investing, why he would buy ETFs before LICs and more.

You can INSTANTLY access Owen’s report for FREE by CLICKING HERE NOW and creating a 100% FREE Rask Account.

(Psst. By creating a free Rask account, you’ll also get access to 15+ online courses, 1,000+ podcasts, invites to events, a weekly value investing newsletter and more!)

Unsubscribe anytime. Read our Terms, Financial Services Guide, Privacy Policy. We’ll never sell your email address. Our company is Australian owned.

Information warning: The information on this website is published by The Rask Group Pty Ltd (ABN: 36 622 810 995) is limited to factual information or (at most) general financial advice only. That means, the information and advice does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not specific to you, your needs, goals or objectives. Because of that, you should consider if the advice is appropriate to you and your needs, before acting on the information. If you don’t know what your needs are, you should consult a trusted and licensed financial adviser who can provide you with personal financial product advice. In addition, you should obtain and read the product disclosure statement (PDS) before making a decision to acquire a financial product. Please read our Terms and Conditions and Financial Services Guide before using this website. The Rask Group Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (#1280930) of AFSL #383169.

At the time of publishing, the author or their clients may have a financial interest in some of companies or securities mentioned.
Skip to content