What a week it has been for the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price and CBA shareholders across the country.
With CBA’s (cough cough, the Government’s) huge relief package making waves across the country, CBA’s true owners — its shareholders — are left wondering what this all means to them right now.
Is it time to buy CBA shares?
Is it too late to sell?
Should we switch out of CBA and into something like National Australia Bank Ltd. (ASX: NAB)?
How about a dividend or low-cost Australian shares ETF?
Maybe we need to go “all cash” and wait for this to blow over?
Or is it simply time to log out of our CommSec accounts, walk away from the computer and revisit all investments in a few months?
(Crazy as it sounds, the last one mightn’t be such a bad idea!)
Featured video: How I value bank shares
In the video above, I explain how analysts — like me — would do my CBA share valuation, and the simple steps that any investor can follow to ‘back out’ the valuation provided by expert banking analysts. You can take one of my free valuation courses by clicking here.
Are CBA shares worth $65?
According to The Wall Street Journal, CBA shares are currently valued by analysts at $65.19. Seven of the 15 analysts surveyed by WSJ label CBA shares as a “sell”.
The thing is, I doubt many of these analysts have:
- Updated their valuations this week, and/or
- Can accurately value CBA shares anyhow
The reason they probably can’t tell you — or me — exactly what they think it’s worth is because the dividend income from CBA shares is now unpredictable. Think about it.
With so much uncertainty, can CBA actually pay a dividend in 2020?
When does the economy recover?
Will there be a heap of bad debts and mortgage arrears?
What does that do for the dividend?
Yesterday, I wrote an in-depth article on CBA and NAB shares which, I hope, provides some clarity on what bank shareholders might expect in the short, medium and long-term: “What holders of CBA shares & NAB shares can expect next”
For me, the bottom line on CBA is pretty simple: there’s still a lot of water to go under the bridge and while I could model a valuation for my members right now, the inputs to it (especially the dividend payments) are too up in the air for me to have a high degree of confidence. At least, enough to tell you what it is worth right now.
I’m looking to buy shares of rock-solid growth companies that will emerge from this downturn far stronger then even they ever thought possible. I’m not as mad as I sound.
If you’re thinking the same way, you could start by considering the three shares in my free investment report below.
2020: 3 stocks to buy for the long run
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Disclosure: at the time of publishing, Owen does not have a financial interest in any of the companies mentioned.