The Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) share price has dropped 20% in 2026 to date. That’s not the first time it has fallen that hard this decade.
The largest Australian airline could be an interesting investment opportunity to consider after falling that hard.
Is this a good Qantas share price to invest at?
The airline isn’t facing border closures this time. It’s being affected by expectations about much higher fuel prices, which could impact its future earnings.
Fuel is one of the biggest variable costs that an airline has to deal with. Staff and airplane costs haven’t changed in the last few weeks, but energy costs have soared because of the Middle East conflict.
It’s understandable why investors are cautious on Qantas’ outlook – significantly higher fuel costs could be a significant headwind for near-term earnings.
But, we should keep a few things in mind.
Firstly, Qantas has been building a more fuel-efficient fleet, so it’s not using as much fuel as it used to.
Secondly, the airline has hedged some of its fuel costs.
Third, the business can pass on the costs to passengers through higher airfares, as it did a few years ago.
When the company announced its FY26 half-year result in February 2026, it said that it expects strong travel demand across the portfolio.
There may not be as much travel demand if airfares go up, but the increased fuel costs may be offset by higher airfares.
HY26 result reminder
We should also keep in mind that the business delivered a very solid result in HY26, showing an increase in profitability, a better on-time performance of its flights and a higher customer satisfaction rating. These are good signs for the future.
The underlying profit before tax increased by $71 million to $1.46 billion and statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) rose slightly by $2 million to $925 million.
In terms of shareholder returns, it announced $450 million in total, with a $300 million base dividend and up to $150 million share buyback.
For me, the key question is what will happen with travel demand – if the economy stays strong enough and there’s still demand then this Qantas share price could be very attractive as a long-term investment.
But, after all of the volatility, I think there could be better investments out there in terms of ASX growth shares.
