The Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) share price is bubbling up 6% on updated HY26 guidance and a settlement outcome with a US distributor.
Treasury Wine Estates is one of the world’s largest wine companies, with its wine sold in more than 100 countries, and 10,000 hectares of vineyards. Its three key divisions are Penfolds, Treasury Collective and Treasury Americas.
Updated guidance for FY26 half year
The company gave investors a preview of its HY26 results today. It announced it expects EBITS (EBIT explained) to be approximately $236 million, compared to the $225 million to $235 million guidance range provided on the 17 December 2025.
Treasury Wine Estates will provide more information as part of its FY2026 interim results update on 16 February 2026.
RNDC settlement
TWE also announced that it has reached a settlement agreement with the Republic National Distributing Company (RNDC), one of its US distributors, about the closure of RNDC’s operations in California in September 2025.
As part of the settlement agreement, Treasury Wine Estates will repurchase Treasury Americas and Treasury Collective portfolio inventory held by RNDC in California for its original sale value, net of a confidential settlement that compensates the ASX wine share for the impact of RNDC’s closure in the state.
Taking into account the expected on-sale of this inventory to other customers, starting in this half, the net cash outflow in the second half of FY26 with this settlement is expected to be approximately US$65 million.
TWE also said it will continue to partner with RNDC to distribute its portfolio across a number of other US markets and the company said it’s supportive of RNDC’s recent initiatives to strengthen their business model and capital structure, including the planned divestment of several markets to Reyes Beverage Group, as well as establishing new financing arrangements.
TWE informed the market that in the first half of FY26, Treasury Americas depletions in states distributed by RNDC grew 2.7%.
This settlement does not alter the planned reduction of distributor inventory levels outside of California over a period of approximately two years.
Final thoughts on the Treasury Wine Estates share price
This seems like a very positive update for shareholders, with operating profit expected to come above the top end of its guidance.
Despite today’s rise, the business is still down around 50% in the past year. I’m not sure if it’s going to be able to bounce back any time soon, but beating guidance is one way to start regaining market confidence.
It’s not the sort of ASX share I’d buy for my own portfolio, but it’s the sort of situation that could lead to investment outperformance if things start improving for the ASX wine share.
