The Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) share price is down more than 15% after providing a FY26 earnings update to the market.
GrainCorp describes itself as one of Australia’s largest integrated agribusinesses that operates across the food, feed and fuel value chain.
It has a market-leading presence in grain storage, handling, processing, edible oils and feedstocks.
FY26 update
The company told investors that it expects FY26 underlying EBITDA (EBITDA explained) to be in the range of between $200 million to $240 million, compared to $308 million in FY25.
Additionally, underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) is expected to be between $20 million to $50 million compared to $87 million in FY25.
The company noted that earnings guidance excludes business transformation costs and the impacts of the sale of GrainsConnect Canada (GCC).
What happened?
The company noted that the East Coast Australia (ECA) winter harvest is now substantially complete and the FY26 export sales program is further progressed since its December 2025 trading update.
GrainCorp said that global grain markets continue to see cyclical oversupply and low prices, while the rate of grower selling across ECA remains “slow”.
Those conditions are continuing to place pressure on grain export margins, which are at multi-year lows.
To combat this, GrainCorp said it’s accelerating cost management initiatives while still delivering high-quality and reliable services to growers. It also said its balance sheet remains strong and positions it well to continue executing its strategy.
Management commentary
The GrainCorp Managing Director and CEO Robert Spurway said:
Record global production has created an oversupply of grain, outpacing demand growth and placing downward pressure on commodity prices for the whole market.
Despite strong ECA production volumes, with ABARES estimating a 2025-26 ECA winter crop of 31.2 million tonnes (mmt), the current abundance of global supply and low grain prices have reduced incentives for growers to deliver grain to market. As a result, GrainCorp is experiencing lower margins on grain handled in FY26.
As previously announced, GrainCorp anticipates FY26 receival volumes to be 11.0-12.0mmt, which compares to 13.3mmt in FY25. We expect exports of 5.5-6.5mmt (FY25: 7.0mmt).
In Nutrition and Energy, we anticipate FY26 average crush margins and Animal Nutrition contribution to be in line with FY25. Agri energy contribution is expected to be lower than FY25 due to ongoing uncertainty around US biofuels policy.
Final thoughts on the GrainCorp share price
The business is clearly exposed to cyclical factors. A low point in the cycle can be an opportunistic and contrarian time to invest, but it’s hard to say whether this is the bottom of the cycle or how long it will take a recovery to occur. Due to those uncertainties, I’d say there are other ASX growth shares and other ASX dividend shares I’d rather buy.
