BHP (ASX:BHP) share price in focus on December 2025 update and copper upgrade

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP) share price is under the spotlight after the miner announced its December update.

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The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is under the spotlight after the miner announced its December update.

BHP is one of the largest miners in the world, producing commodities like iron ore, copper and coal.

December update

The ASX mining share giant revealed how it performed in the three months to December 2025 compared to the first quarter of FY26 (quarter on quarter) and the second quarter of FY25 (year on year).

BHP said that it produced 490.5kt of copper, down 1% quarter on quarter and down 4% year on year.

The miner revealed 69.7mt of iron ore production, representing 9% quarter on quarter growth and 5% year on year growth.

Steelmaking coal production came to 4.3mt, representing a decline of 12% quarter on quarter and a drop of 3% year on year.

Energy coal produced in the December quarter was 4.6mt, represented 31% growth quarter on quarter and 25% year on year.

BHP also noted that its Jansen stage 1 cost will increase to US$8.4 billion, with first production scheduled to be mid-2027. This is up from between US$7 billion to U$7.4 billion announced in July 2025 and the US$5.7 billion when announced in August 2021.

Copper guidance increased

BHP decided to increase its FY26 copper production guidance, which enables it to “further capitalise” on record copper prices. The strong copper price is being driven by “healthy demand and by supply disruptions at a number of competitors”.

The ASX mining share said it’s also advancing its copper growth options. In December, its Vicuna project submitted its application for the incentive regime for large investments (RIGI) in Argentina. Vicuna remains on track to complete its integrated technical report in the first quarter of 2026.

In Chile, the environmental impact declaration (DIA) permit for the Escondida new concentrator, the key element of its growth program, is on track to be submitted in the second half of FY26.

Copper will probably be an increasingly important influence on the BHP share price as time goes on.

Management comments

BHP CEO Mike Henry said:

BHP delivered another half of very strong performance with operational records at our copper and iron ore assets. This was achieved safely and in a positive commodity price environment, with copper prices up 32% and iron ore prices 4% higher year on year.

We also announced a transaction with Global Infrastructure Partners involving WAIO’s inland power network which, once completed, will see us realise proceeds of ~US$2 bn while retaining ownership and operational control in an innovative and value accretive transaction.

The Jansen potash project in Canada is on track to begin production in mid-2027. Jansen will be a long life, low cost and scalable asset that will add a new, future facing commodity to BHP’s portfolio, which we expect will generate value for shareholders over many decades. We have separately provided an updated cost estimate for Jansen Stage 1 today.

China’s commodity demand remains resilient, supported by targeted policy measures and solid exports. Momentum moderated in H2 CY25, notably in construction, manufacturing and infrastructure investments. India is emerging as a key engine of demand, with strong domestic activity sustaining steel and rising copper needs. Forecast global growth in 2026 is around 3%, creating a positive backdrop for commodity demand.

BHP enters the second half of FY26 with strong operating momentum. We’re investing for the decade ahead, with a significant copper growth pipeline and a pathway to ~2 Mt of attributable copper production in the 2030s.

Final thoughts on the BHP share price

BHP is doing what it needs to do to grow production, which is good for current shareholders. But, I wouldn’t say today’s valuation is the right time to invest with commodity prices significantly higher.

For me, there are other ASX dividend shares that are more appealing at the current BHP share price.

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At the time of publishing, Jaz does not have a financial or commercial interest in any of the companies mentioned.

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