The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price significantly outperformed the ASX 200 (ASX: XJO) in 2025, giving shareholders a pleasing return.
BHP is one of the largest constituents of the ASX 200 and an important influence on its overall return, so it’s interesting to see that the ASX mining share giant significantly outperformed the index.
Let’s see how BHP outperformed.
BHP share price performance
During 2025, the BHP share price rose by 13.8% compared to a 6.25% increase for the ASX 200. In other words, the ASX mining giant capital growth return more than doubled that of the ASX 200.
I think there are two main causes for this positive outcome for the mining giant. As a commodity business, the company’s success is linked to the price it gets for the resources.
The iron ore price has positively surprised the market with its strength, despite the supposed challenges the Chinese economy is experiencing and how increased global iron ore supply could impact the iron ore price.
The iron ore price ended 2025 at around US$107 per tonne, which is at a solid level for profit generation by BHP. It has some of the lowest production costs in the world.
Another key positive for the business has been the strength of the copper price. BHP is working on increasing its copper production, which is an important resource for electrification, renewable energy generation, electric grids and data centres (including AI).
Over 2025, the copper price has rose by approximately 40%. That should significantly help boost the company’s earnings for its copper division.
Is the mining giant a buy?
When it comes to cyclical businesses like miners, I like to take a buy low (sell high) approach.
Resource prices aren’t likely to continue going up forever, so it could be a smart move to wait for when conditions are less supportive. I’d wait for a better BHP share price before buying, or at least a more appealing price/earnings ratio (p/e ratio).
The copper (and potash) expansion should turn out to be useful diversification tactics and a good way to grow earnings that doesn’t rely on iron ore. I’m cautious on what could happen with the iron price if African iron ore production rises as expected.
For me, there are other ASX dividend shares that are more appealing that don’t rely on strong commodity prices to deliver future earnings growth.
