The US markets were flat overnight. The US Fed met and held rates where they currently are although did say they anticipate inflation to increase slightly in the second half of the year. They hinted at a potential two further rate cuts for the year.
All eyes are on Trump and his administrations decision to join Israel in targeting Iran. Yesterday I wrote about the Geopolitical Risk Index. The index, which tracks conflict and market returns after, shows the median twelve month return of the S&P 500 following geopolitical conflict is approximately 22%.
Fascinatingly, I found this recent article from Invesco that looked at the Geopolitical Risk Index and at the local stock markets of countries where conflict was on their doorstep. Surprisingly, since the outbreak of the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the Polish stock market has been one of the highest performing in the world.
- S&P 500 = -0.03%
- Nasdaq = +0.13%
- Aussie dollar up 0.4% to 65.03 US cents
- Iron down 0.2% to $92.60 US a tonne
Santos receives a takeover bid
Oil and gas producer, Santos Limited (ASX: STO) has received a takeover bid from a XRG P. J. S. C. for $8.89 a share. The bid from the XRG which is a consortium of US private equity group Carlyle and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company sent Santo’s share price soaring from $5.50 to $7.70. This bid values Santos at $36 billion.
Why has the share price not close the gap to the $8.89 offer price? Energy supply is a political football at the moment and the deal could be rejected.
Even though Santos only supplies approximately 10% of the east coasts gas supply it may not be the best look for the government to allow our energy businesses to be passed across to the UAE during time of heightened sensitivity around energy supply.
The bid will need to be approved by the Foreign Investment Review Board.
An unfair advantage
We’re in a very privileged position as a team at Rask. Through our network of podcasts we are able to talk with some of the best minds in the investment industry.
This week I am sitting down with:
- Emerging market and Asia expert, Dr Joseph Lai from Ox Capital Management
- Tim Carleton founder and Chief Investment Officer from the not just market beating but market thrashing Auscap Asset Management
- Mugunthan Siva who operates the only listed active Indian equities fund in Australia (CBOE: IAEF) via his company India Avenue
- And Stephen Darke, the CEO of alternative asset manager Navigator Global Investments Ltd (ASX: NGI).
That is just me, let alone the conversations Owen will be having.
Our podcast platform is a huge advantage. This list of guests doesn’t happen by chance. I am genuinely curious to learn about each asset class and they are happy to come on the podcast. This gives us a chance to learn about different asset classes, the people and the processes they use.
We are able to take our learnings from these conversations and use them for our Rask Invest portfolios. You would have seen this play out in our most recent rebalance where we added a number of holdings which we discussed during our live event, Escape Velocity.
This access helps us to continue learning and I believe is a genuine, long-term advantage.
As always, to get in touch with me you can reach me via the chat in the bottom right hand corner of the screen or jump across to Rask Invest.
