In this Australian Investors Podcast episode, your hosts Owen Rask and Drew Meredith discuss:
- Reporting season highlights: BHP, Challenger, Treasury Wine Estates and JB Hi-Fi
- BHP’s record high and the copper narrative
- AI disruption and personal financial resilience
- Listener questions: VDHG + alternatives, CGT transfer to partner, gearing in super
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Topics Covered
- Reporting season: BHP, Challenger, Treasury Wine Estates, JB Hi-Fi
- Why BHP’s copper pivot is front and centre
- The ASX “two-speed” feel: banks/resources up, pockets in between struggling
- AI disruption and the case for financial resilience
- The 2026 stock market game leaderboard update
- Hypotheticals: only greater than $10b vs less than $1b market caps; $1m to invest with no US exposure
- Listener Q&A: VDHG + alternatives, transferring ETFs for tax, gearing in super
Reporting season quick hits
BHP: record high and “copper doing the heavy lifting”
BHP hit a record high (at time of recording), with discussion focusing on:
- A strong first-half result and improved copper contribution
- The narrative that iron ore is maturing (still low-cost, but older assets)
- BHP’s “future-facing commodities” positioning and what that means long term
Challenger: annuities keep climbing
Drew and Owen unpack Challenger’s momentum:
- Profit up and annuity sales hitting records
- Why annuities are increasingly relevant as super funds grapple with retirement outcomes
- Challenger as a beneficiary when governments and regulators “mess with” retirement rules
Treasury Wine Estates: a tough patch
The discussion notes a difficult period for Treasury, including:
- Revenue down materially and margin pressure
- Penfolds flagged as a key area of weakness
- A reminder that even “brand” doesn’t immunise a business from demand shocks
JB Hi-Fi: margin surprise
JB Hi-Fi’s result is framed as resilient versus other retail pockets:
- A positive margin surprise (even if small in basis points)
- Store footprint and “mini-warehouse” advantages in a world of click-and-collect
- Why retail remains a margin game — and why discipline matters
The 2026 stock market game leaderboard
Owen and Drew check in on the Rask x Novexa stock market game (early days, big swings):
- “Crypto Short” leads (at time of recording), with a call-out for top 10 players to write in
- Owen admits he’s “deep in the red” while Drew’s sitting comfortably inside the top 1,000
AI disruption and financial resilience
A big theme: AI is moving fast, and the human question is what it means for income security.
Key takeaways:
- Even if “mass job losses” is overstated, change is real, especially for white-collar and back-office work
- The practical response isn’t panic — it’s financial resilience: savings buffer, cautious debt, flexible expenses
- Markets can overshoot (especially when valuations are high) — but not every company gets “disrupted” equally
Hypotheticals: Drew vs Owen
Only invest in greater than $10b or less than $1b companies — which do you pick?
Both hosts land on greater than $10b, mainly because:
- More information, maturity and survivability
- No forced “sell because it got too big” problem (as with small-cap-only constraints)
You have $1m to invest, but you can’t invest in the US
Drew sketches a (deliberately) growth-tilted approach with heavy Asia exposure, plus Australia, Europe and small caps. Owen notes most investors have never planned for a “no US” scenario — which makes it a useful thought exercise.
Listener questions answered
1) 51-year-old simplifying: 80% VDHG + 20% alternatives?
Key points:
- VDHG can be a simple starting point, but it’s a blunt tool for retirement planning
- 20% in “alternatives” is a big call without clear objective, income needs and fee awareness
- The underlying message: start with goals and desired outcomes (income, volatility, control), then build
2) Transfer ETFs to partner in a lower tax bracket?
General principles discussed:
- It depends on future income paths (partner returning to work, changing brackets, etc.)
- Don’t make a purely short-term tax decision without considering longer-term structure
- For larger future portfolios, structures like family trusts may come into consideration (seek advice)
3) Gearing inside super at age 43
Highlights:
- Modest gearing can make sense for some with a long horizon and ability to keep contributing
- It’s not a free lunch: when rates rise, borrowing costs rise — and markets can fall at the same time
- Gearing strategies require a stronger stomach and a clear plan for bad markets
