The Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) share price will be under the spotlight when it returns to trading after announcing its FY25 result.
Rio Tinto is one of the largest miners in the world, with exposure to commodities like copper, iron ore, bauxite, aluminium and plenty more.
Rio Tinto FY25 result
Here are numbers for the 12 months to 31 December 2025:
- Revenue grew 7% to US$57.6 billion
- Underlying EBITDA (EBITDA explained) rose 9% to $25.3 billion
- Operating cashflow rose 8% to US$16.8 billion
- Underlying net profit was flat at US$10.9 billion
- Net profit declined 14% to US$10 billion
- Free cashflow fell 28% to US$4 billion
- The ordinary dividend per share was flat at US$4.02
What happened?
There was a mixed performance across its different operations.
Iron ore EBITDA declined 11% to US$15.2 billion, aluminium and lithium EBITDA grew 29% to $4.6 billion and copper EBITDA jumped 114% to $7.4 billion.
Rio Tinto’s iron ore division suffered from an 8% decline in the average Pilbara iron ore realised/sold price to US$90 per dry metric tonne (dmt). The iron ore Pilbara shipments declined 1% to 326.2mt.
Pleasingly, Simandou – the African iron ore project – has started and it achieved 1mt of production.
Aluminium and lithium benefited from a 17% rise in the average realised aluminium price to US$3,318 per tonne. Aluminium production grew 3% and bauxite production increased 6%. Lithium production has only just started.
The business said it’s now focused on delivering ‘in-flight’ lithium projects in Argentina and Canada.
Copper production grew 11% and the average realised copper price increased 8% to US$4.57 per pound. Even more impressively, free cashflow jumped 437% to $2.8 billion.
The Oyu Tolgiu (copper mine in Mongolia) ramp-up is on track to reach an average of around 500,000 tonnes of copper per year from 2028 to 2036. It’s continuing to engage with the Government of Mongolia, including the entree licence transfer.
The Rio Tinto CEO Simon Trott said:
We continue to invest in delivering industry-leading, value-accretive growth, supported by our disciplined capital allocation and best-in-class project execution. We remain on track to achieve 3% CAGR in CuEq1 production to 2030. At the same time, the structural cost improvements underway today position us for higher margins and cash flow.
With a high-quality pipeline, anchored in copper, we have clear visibility to extend this growth profile well into the next decade.
Our strong cash flow and balance sheet enable us to sustain a 60% payout ratio with a $6.5 billion ordinary dividend, making it the tenth consecutive year at the top end of the range.
Outlook for the Rio Tinto share price
The company reaffirmed its guidance for 2026 for its commodities and production.
Total iron ore sales are expected to be between 343mt to 366mt, including between 5mt to 10mt for Simandou. That compares to 342mt in 2025, so growth is expected.
Pilbara iron ore FOB cash costs are expected to be between flat at 23.5 per wet metric tonne (wmt) to 25mt.
Copper production is seemingly going to reduce, according to the guidance. In 2026, it’s expected to see copper production of between 800kt to 870kt, down from 883kt in 2025.
Copper C1 net unit costs are expected to be between US$0.65 to US$0.75 per pound, compared to US$0.67 per pound.
Aluminium production is expected to be between 3.25mt to 3.45mt, compared to 3.4mt in 2025. Bauxite production is expected to decline to 58mt to 61mt, down from 62.4mt in 2025.
Lithium production is expected to rise to between 61mt to 64mt, up from 57mt in 2025.
I don’t think the Rio Tinto share price is great value, particularly after rising 49% in the past six months. ASX mining shares can be cyclical as resource prices go through supply and demand changes, impacting the resource price. It can be compelling to buy when there’s weakness rather than a strong commodity price.
While it’s delivering a solid dividend for investors, there are other ASX dividend shares I’d say are better value and can provide a stronger dividend yield.
