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3 things that got the team at Firetrail talking this week

Eliza Clarke of Firetrail Investments highlights 3 things that has impacted the global stock market and the Australian share market. How will this update affect the Australian share market?

1. Shopping season is here…

Once again, the consumer appears more resilient than expected!

Adobe Inc (NASDAQ: ADBE) Analytics data showed Black Friday shopping was up 7.5% y/y to a record US $9.8 billion for the day. Adobe also estimated Cyber Monday spending to be US $12.4 billion.

Spend on mobile was estimated to be +14% y/y and an all-time record as people preferred to shop from home. And Shopify had a record Black Friday result, with merchants reporting +22% growth in gross merchandise volume (GMV).

If you missed out on the sales weekend, don’t worry, Amazon announced they have millions more holiday deals still to come!

Source: Deloitte (November 2023)

2. Bets on…

The Nations SkewDex (INDEXNASDAQ: SDEX) index provides a good indication of the markets willingness to take on risk. Or its disinclination to take out insurance.

The Index measures the relative cheapness to an out-of-the-money put versus an at-the-money put.

And the SDEX Index is currently printing at the lowest level in history. Meaning investors aren’t expecting volatility, or don’t think they need insurance against it!

Source: Bloomberg (November 2023)

3. Demographic debrief…

There are some interesting changes in global demographics taking shape –

  1. The United Nations forecasts that by the end of this century, Japan’s population will have declined from 120 million to 80 million, see first chart below.
  2. India has caught up to China in outbound travel penetration post Covid, after it lagged China by an estimated 13 years pre-Covid.
  3. China’s annual births have dropped to the lowest level in over 75 years.
  4. And Canada’s population is surging, as USA population change declines.
Source: Ministry of Health and Welfare, Japan; UN; Haver; Apollo Chief Economist (November 2023)
Source: Morgan Stanley (November 2023)
Source: Nikkei Asia (November 2023)
Source: Evans (November 2023)

If you want to gain an edge through extremely deep research focused on “What Matters”, keep reading… 

Firetrail offers a range of investment solutions covering Aussie shares, global shares, small cap and large cap equities funds.

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At the time of publishing, the author or their clients may have a financial interest in some of companies or securities mentioned.

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