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ASX 200 & the RBA: maybe our 2023 predictions are coming true?

Has the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) finally put an end to its interest rate hikes? The S&P/ASX 200 (INDEXASX: XJO) is bouncing and Costa Group (ASX: CGC) is a takeover target.

ASX 200 bounces on RBA interest rates

The chart above tracks the performance of the Betashares Australia 200 ETF (ASX: A200), which is a way to track the movements in the top 200 Aussie shares over time. 

On Tuesday, news that the Reserve Bank of Australia had decided to pause the most aggressive period of rate hikes in recent memory saw both the All Ordinaries (ASX: XAO) and ASX 200 surge to a 0.5 per cent gain.

This strong start to the new financial year was powered by the financials and property sectors, which gained 1 and 1.1 per cent, respectively.

RBA interest rates: good news for property?

The property sector was led by the likes of Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR) and Dexus Group (ASX: DXS) which added 2.2 and 1.1 per cent on hopes that the hit to valuations may be limited.

Yet all eyes were on vertically integrated agricultural company Costa Group (ASX: CGC), which gained 12.1 per cent, after confirming the receipt of a formal takeover bid from Pain Schwartz Partners to acquire the company for $3.50 per share. The deal is a 34 per cent premium to the prior price and will include the payment of the interim dividend.

Silverlake affirms production & Suncorp premiums increase

News that Russia and Saudi Arabia had decided to cut production nearly beat the RBA’s hold decision in terms of headlines, with the result seeing the energy sector top the market, up 1.2 per cent.

Both countries are seeking to stabilise prices following a period of weakness due to US and global recessionary concerns. Pay rises for workers continue to grow and draw the ire of the central bank as they seek to cut spending, with the largest jump in 11 years in enterprise bargaining agreements, seeing an annual pay rise of 3.7 per cent delivered.

The Silverlake Resources Ltd (ASX: SLR) share price gained 5.8 per cent after the company confirmed prior sales and production guidance and a significant increase in cash on hand.

Finally, Suncorp Group (ASX: SUN) faces the unique challenge of insurance companies, with the group noting that reinsurance premiums, through which they offset their policy claims, will likely be increased by more than $250 million or 12 per cent in 2024, placing more pressure on premium hikes.

Is my 2023 prediction coming true?

On The Australian Investors Podcast each and every Saturday at 7 am, we provide an update on the economy and what’s happened recently. Late last year, we hinted at the possibility of an interest rate cut in 2023, which is/was extremely contrarian. With RBA interest rates rising a few times this year already, our (tongue-in-cheek) prediction may not be correct. And our portfolios are not dependent upon it. However, there’s a chance, if the economy slows down meaningfully, it could happen.

Yesterday, I published this article on the 5 things every investor should be watching in the second half of 2023.

The 5 risks we’re watching in 2023

The Golden Rules of Investing

We might be experts in retirement, but with combined financial advice experience of 35+ years, we’ve nearly seen it all. 

In mid-2023, our senior team at Wattle Partners Financial Planning put the finishing touches on a brand-new report “The Golden Rules of Investing“.

In this free report, we outline the key principles that determine all of the portfolio construction and investment decisions of Wattle Partners. Collated over decades, this paper should be seen as a work-in-progress, constantly under review in light of the ever-evolving nature of markets. 

You’ll find the free report on my Author page. Simply click the button below to view the Golden Rules.

Information warning: The information on this website is published by The Rask Group Pty Ltd (ABN: 36 622 810 995) is limited to factual information or (at most) general financial advice only. That means, the information and advice does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not specific to you, your needs, goals or objectives. Because of that, you should consider if the advice is appropriate to you and your needs, before acting on the information. If you don’t know what your needs are, you should consult a trusted and licensed financial adviser who can provide you with personal financial product advice. In addition, you should obtain and read the product disclosure statement (PDS) before making a decision to acquire a financial product. Please read our Terms and Conditions and Financial Services Guide before using this website. The Rask Group Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (#1280930) of AFSL #383169.

At the time of publishing, Drew Meredith or his clients may have a financial interest, for or against, any of the companies mentioned in this article.

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Wattle Partners is a financial advice firm, servicing clients around Australia, specialising in retirement planning (pre and post retirement). 

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