Shares in Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW) and Nick Scali Limited (ASX: NCK) have both been favourites among ASX investors this year.
But as you can see from the chart below, while Nick Scali shares did make a strong recovery, it was really Temple & Webster that proved itself to be the main beneficiary of COVID-19.
Here’s a quick way I analyse the recent results and my preference of the two ASX retail shares.
Comparing Temple & Webster and Nick Scali
Both Temple & Webster and Nick Scali are retailers of furniture and homewares in Australia with capital-light business models.
Temple & Webster runs an online-only platform, so it definitely had a headstart over Nick Scali, which had to close many of its stores and enhance its online channel in response to the pandemic.
Temple & Webster has seen an enormous surge in sales and profits, recording $176 million revenue and $13.9 million net income in FY20 (up 97% and 269%, respectively, from FY19).
In comparison, Nick Scali’s revenue and net income figures show pretty much flat growth compared to FY19. One of the reasons for this is because the recent influx of orders was made with a typical delivery lead time of 9-13 weeks. This all comes down to accounting practices and it means that the revenue will be recognised in FY21’s financial statements rather than FY20.
In my eyes, both Nick Scali and Temple & Webster face the same million-dollar question: how much of these sales were brought on and boosted by superannuation withdrawals and stimulus?
Our own government has pointed out that many Australians are saving their money rather than spending it, which perhaps implies that these sales won’t be once-off, but only time will tell.
What about valuation?
NCK and TPW shares trade on forward P/E ratios of 9.5 and 47.4, respectively. The high price tag on Temple & Webster shares is reflected in the estimated growth rates for future years.
Consensus estimates for Nick Scali are showing per-share earnings growth of 67% for FY21. Estimates for Temple & Webster are showing around 185% earnings growth also on a per-share basis.
What I find interesting is that Nick Scali shares appear extremely cheap on a P/E basis, yet has really strong expected earnings growth. On a trailing basis, Nick Scali usually trades on a P/E of 16. Assuming it can hold this multiple and achieve its earnings estimates, this gives a 1-year price target of around $13.92.
I think it’s going to be harder for Temple & Webster to maintain such a high multiple and on the flip side of that, I think it’s possible the market might re-rate Nick Scali’s valuation off the back of some strong earnings growth next year.
Summary
Personally, I think the valuation just seems to make a lot more sense for Nick Scali shares at the moment. Temple & Webster has some pretty significant growth forecasted, but I’m not sure how long it’ll be able to hold that eyewatering multiple for.
If you’re on the hunt for more share ideas, check out this article: 3 ASX growth shares to add to your watchlist.
